By John Rizzo

Most Xserve owners won't replace Apple's discontinued server hardware any time soon, according to a new survey of 1200 IT administrators released today by the Enterprise Desktop Alliance (EDA). When they do migrate, more will continue using Mac OS X Server than will move to Windows Server or Linux, though a large number of respondents were undecided on this point.

Sixty five percent of the respondents said that they would keep their Xserves for two or more years, or until the hardware stops functioning. When they do move to new hardware, by a large margin said they would prefer Mac OS X Server for client management, more than Windows and Linux combined. However, nearly the same number of people were undecided as to where they would eventually migrate client management. Between 70 and 90 percent of respondents (depending on the type of organization) use Xserves today to run software to administer and manage client Macs.

Mac OS X Server was the preferred migration target for most other services as well, but the results were less clear with file service. Respondents were almost evenly split, with 26 percent saying they would migrate file service to Windows, 21 percent said Mac OS X, 20 percent said Linux/Unix, and 22 percent were undecided.

The results differed slightly depending on the market segment. Small businesses (under 100 employees) and K-12 education were more likely to transition the Mac Pro and Mac mini than those in large business and higher education. The Xserve is Apple's enterprise-level server hardware, rack-mounted with features that include hot-swappable redundant power supplies and lights-off management (LOM), features that are usually required in enterprise environments.

The desire to run Mac OS X Server on this type of hardware is reflected in discussion forums around the Web, where administrators have been hoping that Apple allowing it to run in a virtual machine on non-Apple hardware. However, there is no indication that Apple plans to abandon its long-held prohibition against running Mac OS on non-Apple computers.

One group of Xserve fans have created an online petition to try to convince Apple to change its plan and to keep the Xserve. And one of several Apple discussion forum threads -- now at 11 pages and growing -- is filled with comments predicting dire consequences. With no enterprise server and no future plans for enterprise from Apple, administrators worry that Macs in enterprise will decline.

In fact, EDA's survey shows that owners of the Xserve have a higher number of Macs than do other organizations. Among the respondents with more than 100 employees, 17 percent of their laptops and desktops are Macs compared to 4.5 percent among all organizations their size.

Yet, survey respondents don't have the gloomy outlook seen in the discussion forums. A large majority (70 percent) believe that the elimination of the Xserve will have no impact on their organization's plans to deploy Macs.

The relatively large number of respondents who were undecided about their post-Xserve plans seems to reflect the current uncertainty about Apple's plans and the fact that the survey was conducted during the week following Apple's Xserve announcement. This includes the fact that Apple has not yet announced whether there will be a server version of Mac OS X 10.7 Lion. And, rumors of Apple virtualizing its server or licensing it to a third party hardware are still in play. Neither is likely, though a Lion Server is probable.

EDA plans to do a follow up survey in six months after some of these questions have been settled. In the mean time, EDA will be hosting a webcast "Xserve Transition Options" on Tuesday, February 1, 2011. Registration is now open.